The Odds Are Against Us

I am really grateful to be sober; as the saga of my friend unfolds it totally keeps the memories of my struggles up front. Not enough, that just a month after rehab, he is exactly where he was before but now he has been drinking and popping painkillers stating that at least he is not doing heroin. I guess that is better, somewhat, but we know a drug is a drug. It's so sad, just breaks my heart. And there is nothing we can do but wait and hopefully catch him before he falls. I swear I sometimes still cant believe that I was able to get sober; it seemed so hopeless. I tried to get sober for 3 years before I was able to stay sober for more than a few months, but now with the help and support of AA, I have been sober for almost 5 years! So I treasure my sobriety because we who get sober are true miracles.

If you really want a rough estimate that sort of gives a decent answer to the question, you can always say “about 5% stay sober.”  This is not far from the truth.  In all actuality, you can see a sort of drop off rate as people try to stay sober for longer and longer.  In other words, if 100 people try to get sober, about 5% of them will make it to 90 days sober.

Now take all of the people who made it to 90 days sober.  About 5% of THOSE people will make it to 2 years sober.

So there is sort of this drop off rate that slides, and it is a pretty scary slope.  Make it to 90 days and you are not out of the woods yet.  Make it to 2 years and you are STILL not out of the woods yet.
However, if you make it to 4 years sober, then your chances of achieving “permanent sobriety” jump significantly.  The statistics show at that point that if you make it to 4 years sober, you will probably stay sober forever.  Of course with addiction there are no certainties. - Spiritual River to Recovery

Statistics are very low. This is why I have to do what is necessary to stay sober and sobriety has to be my number one priority. That means staying close to AA, my sponsor, the fellowship and my Higher Power.

One Day At a Time!